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Boot Camp Day 19: How to Read News Data — Transcript · YTtoTranscript

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Boot Camp Day 19: How to Read News Data

TJR · 3,517 words · 18 min read · EN-ORIG

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Below is the complete, readable transcript of Boot Camp Day 19: How to Read News Data by TJR on YouTube. Read the full text, copy any part you need, or generate a transcript for any video with our free tool.

all right what's good welcome to boot camp um I'm just gonna stop saying the days because I don't know where we're at I think we're getting close to uh three weeks so hopefully you guys have been powering through kind of crazy I've been uploading every single day for three weeks seems Seems insane there's been

some days where we've literally uploaded two videos a day um it's really motivating I want to keep it up uh we're almost a month into this and we're we're you know we're working we're working slow and steady all right um you know we're we're getting to where we need to be we're slowly you know

we're almost done with the building blocks we're almost getting into strategy probably by the end of the month we'll be done um we'll be done with the building blocks and we'll have the strategy locked down um but today is not about trading today it's about kind of like psychology but or it's sort of about trading um but

since we had CPI news data today I figured today um is one of the best days for us to talk about news in the market and you know what types of news you shouldn't trade um why you should be patient with news um and I was actually just on a a zoom call with my Discord and it was it

actually made me rage um seeing how many people traded during CPI and before CPI and wanted to trade after CPI so I figured let's make this the video for today um so let's get right into it let's talk about news in the market okay so first of all this is going to be who knows how

long but I'm going to try and cover everything about news um possible in this video so hopefully we don't have to recover it again and I'm trying going to try and drill this into your guys's skull um about the [ __ ] so first of all where do I get my news from

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it is called Forex Factory okay so I literally just go forexfactory.com and when you come on here initially it'll look like this let's put all these things on here it'll look like this and this is this is a lot to take in okay so the way that I like to do it is

I know that these yellow folders these are just random stupid news events that happen day in and day out that don't really affect the marketing that's why they're yellow okay so I get rid of those I leave the gray folders because those announced like bank holidays and days where there aren't trading days so I get rid of the

yellow folders and then I also get rid of all the currencies that I don't trade so do I trade AUD USD or any AUD pair no do I trade any Canadian dollar pair nope do I trade any um CHF pair no do I trade any uh Chinese yen pair no do I trade any European pair

nope do I trade a GBP a Great British pound pair yes I do I trade GBP USD and GBP JPY cool do I trade a JPY pair yes I trade GBP JPY cool do I trade NCD no I do not do I trade a USD pair yes I trade GBP USD I trade gold and then I also

trade the S P 500 your S P 500 news events will be covered by USD okay and then from there I hit apply filter and boom much prettier knocks it down to what we need to focus on okay as you can see it labels what currencies the news the news is for right in here

okay so from there right we we filtered it down okay now let's talk about what news we should try and avoid most of the time if there is a red news folder no matter what I will always always always wait until the news comes out which you can see what time it comes out right

here and the nice thing about this is it um it gets set up to like it automatically like connects to whatever time zone you're on so this it'll say it in your time zone um so today we had CPI as you can see red folder red folder red folder we also have two red folders on GBP

um overall just a terrible probability day to trade right we have three red folders We Know That CPI news data causes havoc in the market right if we if we look we can see like even on GJ oops if we go into the lower time frames we can see how large these Wicks are

like boom this is right when CPI came out massive Wick let's look at gold right this is during CPI massive Wick math like this is not price action that you are able to trade it is unprobable price action so why don't we why do we want to wait until afternoons on red folder days

because news is going to drastically affect the market and the nice thing about this is let's say we only have one red folder and I'm okay with trading on red folder days it just depends on which ones okay so let's say we have a red folder day and we see the market and we wait for news

to come out and news comes out we let price develop and news doesn't affect the market that much then I will be okay Trading right if you news doesn't affect the market for like after like 15 or 20 minutes after it comes out so at like 8 45 or like at 8 50

if news didn't affect the market I would have been okay to trade but knowing CPI CPI always affects the market Okay so that's that's my my kind of overall rule with news red and orange folders always wait for news to come out let price develop see if it drastically affected the market you know with large Wicks large

moves okay and if it does that don't trade okay do not trade and if it doesn't okay you can potentially look for a trade but still be playing on that defensive side still be playing with that patience in mind knowing that hey today it will probably be a lower probability day I should probably risk

less I should probably reduce my risk I should probably be looking to not trade unless Market gives me a great opportunity and most the time it won't give you a great opportunity so de-risk yourself from the market when there's big news okay there's a couple news events that I always avoid you guys should write these

down CPI PPI fomc and NFP those four CPI which happened today PPI which is happening tomorrow fomc which is also happening tomorrow and then NFP non-farm payroll anything that says non-farm non-farm employment non-farm payroll nope no go okay those four I will not I do not trade whatsoever okay so I won't be trading tomorrow

the following day this day I don't want to trade I I probably won't trade on Thursday either because look we have one red folder two red folder three red folder four red folder orange folder another orange folder a [ __ ] red folder and then an orange folder okay and and all of these are for USD so if anything I'll

probably only be looking at like GJ on Thursday right because all of these are USC Pairs and all the other all the trade all the pairs that I trade are USC besides JPY okay and again I'll look at the market after 8 30 right and see how price develops after all this news comes out

and I'll make a decision right because this isn't CPI this isn't PPI this is an fomc and this isn't non-farm payroll however this is a lot of red folders so low probability d-risk see what happens in the market if it makes a big move we're done okay on Friday this is a perfect example

of when I would trade and how I would trade news we have news that comes out 30 minutes into Market open Market opens at 9 30 for me boom news comes out at 10. what am I going to do I'm going to sit on my hands [ __ ] tuck that [ __ ]

under my ass and I will not trade until 10 a.m hits and I'm and I still won't trade until like 10 30 hits because we need price to develop and we need to see what happens with consumer sentiment and even then even then will I be you know actively trying to make a lot of money no I definitely

won't why because this entire week is flooded with news this entire week has so much news okay so it's best to sit on your hands don't trade in unprobable conditions be patient remember this is what we talked about be patient look for a reason not to trade not a reason to trade okay and it will

benefit you all right so now we know what news what news events to avoid and now we know that we should wait if we do want want to trade news or if we're looking to potentially take a trade and we know that there is news that day and it isn't one of those four events we wait for

news to come out we wait to see the data and we'll talk about how to read the news data right now um and then we wait for like you know 15 20 30 minutes okay let price develop and then we can look to take a trade cool cool now let's talk about how to read news

data so Forex factory makes this [ __ ] super easy so the nice thing about this we see CPI month-to-month CPI year to year core CPI month to month okay as you can see right here we have the forecast which is what people in the news is predicting right like CNN Fox News whatever this is

what Forex Factory is predicting the news will be right this is what everyone is predicting right and these numbers are the actual news data that ends up coming out okay so when we see these numbers and they're different than the forecast and they're different than what people are expecting we can open up this little

folder you just click the little folder and it brings you a bunch of data okay we can see where it's coming from Bureau of Labor Statistics no one gives a [ __ ] okay measures measures what is this talking about change in the in the price of goods and services purchased by people so when you go to the grocery

store what do you buy right this is pretty much what it's measuring okay this is the only thing that I care about the usual effect right because this will tell you the news bias and that doesn't mean that should be your buys for the day that's just telling you what the news came out

as so what was the forecast 0.2 and also before the news comes out this actual spot is blank okay this is because news already came out right if we go and look at tomorrow right we see that as blank and if we click on this right we don't we don't know what the

news data is yet okay but we have this one so we see what is the usual effect if the if the actual right it literally gives it to you if actual is greater is greater than the forecast then it is good for the currency hold on though okay this is where it gets tricky

some of you guys might you know needs to take some time to understand this for me it makes complete sense but some of you guys might take some time good for the currency what does that mean does that mean good for the S P 500 no no it does not mean good for the S P 500 is

the S P 500 the U.S currency no the S P 500 is not the currency bruh what is the currency the dollar the dxy and what do we know about the dxy when the dxy goes up anything against the the dollar goes down so gold where's gu g u the s p will follow down so when it's good for

the currency when when that means good for the dollar that means bad for SPX bad for gold bad for GU bad for EU bad for AUD USD bad for [ __ ] anything against you the US dollar good for the US dollar means bad for anything against it that even goes for crypto

BTC slash USD anything XXX slash USD bad SPX bad good for the dollar bad for SPX hopefully that that gets it across okay so when we see this greater than forecast is good for currency it was less than forecasts okay all right it was less than less than forecasts okay we see the dxy rally bad for

[ __ ] um we see the [ __ ] s p fall okay if we go on this same [ __ ] greater than forecasts good for currency okay cool okay and that doesn't mean that the chart is going to follow right because we can see we can see today right greater than forecast good for

currency it was less in the forecast but what happened to dxy it's [ __ ] pumping right right here this candle is when the news came out this is all that news did right we say uh oh bad for bad for um sorry bad for the currency because the forecast because the forecast was

actually less because sorry the actual was actually less than the forecast we dropped down but then what did dxy do rallies a rally that's why we can't necessarily trust news bias because price action is is superior that's why we have to wait for news to come out okay right we see that it was less than

forecasts right so that means it would be bad for the currency we see dxy right when news comes out with this candle it dumps right bad for currency boom false what happened to the S P 500 [ __ ] rallied right where where did it come out with news right here look boom rallies high

high high okay but that doesn't necessarily show you guys where Market wants to go for the day right where did Mark where did market end up going dollar ended up rallying the dollar ended up eating up this news drop so that's why we need to wait for news okay so good for currency bad for the S P 500

okay same thing with these GBP stuff okay however we need to understand right understand your currency pairs if it is xXx slash USD right and we have something that is good for the US dollar whatever that pair is it will go down because it's against the US dollar right so if it's the Great

British pound against the US dollar and the US dollar benefits then what does that mean that means the pound against the dollar will fall because the US dollar is going to be stronger than the pound can you get like are we comprehending are we good with that write that down rewind that watch it

again because like sometimes I don't know what it is about reading news but some people like I try and explain this as simple as possible but some people still don't understand it okay so that's against the US dollar now hold on this is where you might start bugging out really focus okay what about

GBP slash XXX right when there's news for Great British pound right look at how these pairs are set up right if we drag this over what does this say GBP JPY that means right literally Great British pound against the Yen so for the news for Great British pound when we see okay less than forecasts is

good for currency we had less than forecasts that means it's good for currency that means if it's good for the pound then anything pound against XXX will go up it's different than against the US dollar right so if we see if we have news for GBP right this one for example less than

forecasts good for currency good for the Great British pound if it's the pound against the dollar in the pound gets good news good for that currency then that pair is going to go up right but if it's whatever currency against the US dollar right it depends on what side of the parentheses uh what side of the slash it

is right pound against the dollar right versus right yeah like pound against the dollar versus like USD JPY okay would be different for this right because that's USD against the yen are we understanding that we have to understand what side of the slash we are on we have to we have to understand that

These Guys these we are literally comparing two currencies it's a fraction so the pound is on top USD is on the bottom right so if we get good news for what's on top that means up up if we get bad news for [ __ ] that's on the bottom that means up up if we get good news for what's on the

bottom that means down down if we get bad news for what's on top that means down down is that making sense ready we'll literally write this down

does that make sense and then we'll do a contrasting one like USC JPY

that makes sense okay so whatever is on top whatever's on top it's positive correlation whatever's on bottom it's just inversed okay so if it's good for currency on whatever is on the back end of the Slash it's inverse okay so if we get good for currency on the US dollar price is going

to go down if we get bad for currency on the US dollar price is going to go up versus here on uh on if USC's on the on the other side if we get USC good for currency price is going to go up if we get USC battery Currency Price goes down screenshot this put this in your notes

do whatever you have to do that's how we find our news bias is new is news bias and all be all no it just helps us understand [ __ ] news data okay cool we got it we locked in awesome that's how you read news and that's how you should trade news right wait for Newsday to come out if

it's CPI PPI fomc or NFP just call it quits bro sleep in live to trade another day don't lose your money you're trading in unprobleable conditions odds are you're not profitable already so that means you have a below a 50 chance to win the trade in the first place because you're not profitable okay

along with news coming out gives you a lower probability of winning because you don't know how to trade and you have an unprobable an unprobable of news event coming out into the market terrible decision to trade and you wonder why you guys lose money in these markets literally had this discussion with my

Discord this morning I literally had a zoom call with my Discord telling them literally I did a zoom call I told them I was going to trade and I did a zoom call just so I could tell them not to trade trying to save you all bread man hopefully so hopefully this video helped

you understand news within the market hopefully you guys understand how to read news within the market with this stuff now and hopefully you guys can set up your Forex Factory and make sure you guys are checking this every single morning before you guys trade because you don't want to get caught taking a

trade and the next thing you know news comes out five minutes later it stops you out makes you lose a bunch of money cool cool with that being said you guys now know how to read news and I know how to find a news bias you now know what news not to trade I'll catch you guys

tomorrow