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Por qué la energía solar está en crisis - Si lo hubiera sabido — Transcript · YTtoTranscript

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Por qué la energía solar está en crisis - Si lo hubiera sabido

Si lo hubiera sabido · 3,006 words · 15 min read · EN

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Below is the complete, readable transcript of Por qué la energía solar está en crisis - Si lo hubiera sabido by Si lo hubiera sabido on YouTube. Read the full text, copy any part you need, or generate a transcript for any video with our free tool.

The global energy market has been turned upside down. The last few months have reminded us like never before how important energy security is . And friends, be aware that many countries have taken note. The war in Iran and the disruption of the Ormud Canal have been the second serious warning in just 5

years, because before that there was the crisis with Russia over the war in Ukraine. Then, when the tap was turned off, bills skyrocketed, industries began to tremble, and governments panicked. And now the situation has repeated itself. And that's why the question is, what can we do to prevent this from happening to us again

? Well, the first answers are already on the table. Let's get started. [music]

Many of you will be thinking it. This is surely the perfect moment for the definitive push towards renewable energies, which makes perfect sense . Renewable energy is energy that you produce in your own territory. You are not dependent on supplies or raw materials that you cannot control. Doesn't that expose you to the possibility that someone might decide at some point to

close a strait or cut off a gas pipeline in terms of national security? They are a blessing. And even before the war, the growth rate of renewables seemed unstoppable. Look at what happened in 2025 alone. That year, for the first time in history, the new renewable generation exceeded the increase in global electricity demand; that is, the increase

in renewable production was greater than the increase in demand. an outrage that already speaks to the replacement of non-clean energy sources . And friends, this isn't the only milestone achieved in 2025. Look, renewable energy surpasses coal as the world's largest source of electricity. Last year, for the first time in more than a century, renewable energy

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surpassed coal, at 34% to 33%. And how was this possible? This is largely explained by the protagonist of this video, solar energy, the renewable energy that is experiencing the most explosive growth and that many already see as the true pillar of the future energy mix. No joke, with news like this. Photovoltaics becomes for the first

time the fastest growing energy source in the world. And it's no wonder. In 2025 alone, global solar power generation grew by 30%. Solar energy production increased from 2,143 to 2,778 TWh, accounting for 25% of the total increase in global energy supply . This means that one out of every four additional kWh generated worldwide

last year came from solar power. Furthermore, its price continues to fall, dropping by 90% since 2010. In fact, the price has decreased so much that in countries like India, one of the world's largest energy consumers, installing solar panels, even with small batteries, is now cheaper than burning coal. And of course, the price is only part of the

story, because if the Iran war has brought anything to the table, it is something much more powerful: the concept of security. Logically, a solar panel does not depend on what happens in the Strait of Ormud. Once installed and with strategic reserves of certain materials, it simply works no matter what Iran does, no matter what

Russia does, no matter what anyone does. And of course, this encourages both the public and private sectors to seek these types of alternatives. And this is not a matter of theory. Germany is the best example. The war in Ukraine was a perfect catalyst for German solar energy. In 2023 alone, one year after the invasion, the new

installed solar capacity doubled from 7.2 to 14.3 GW. Energy was already growing like that, but the pace skyrocketed. So to recap, we have falling costs for this energy source, sky- high energy prices, and a safety argument that has never been so obvious. Everything suggests that La Solar should be experiencing its best moment.

However, friends, as reality has already accustomed us, everything is much more complicated. Global growth in solar energy will slow for the first time. Yes, you heard right, solar energy. Although everything seems to indicate that it should be going swimmingly and better than ever, it seems to be stagnating, and it's not just a

temporary setback. According to Bloomberg, this is a trend that will continue for the next decade. Solar power will continue to grow, yes, but that frenetic pace we had become accustomed to, that 30% annual growth, that record after record, has ended at least for now. But how is this possible? How can it be

stopped at a moment like this when all the arguments point in the opposite direction? Well, that's exactly what we're going to answer next. Pay close attention because there are some twists and turns ahead. To understand why solar growth is going to slow down, we first need to understand who is in charge of this industry.

And here we need to separate two things. On the one hand, who generates more solar energy? On the other hand, who manufactures the panels? Let's start with manufacturing, which, as many of you know, China practically has total control of . The country in the center produces more than 80% of all the world's solar panels

, which is outrageous. But if we go down to the basic components, things get even more extreme. In polysilicon and wafers, the fundamental ingredients of any solar panel, China controls 95% of world production. 95%. Do you understand what this means in practice? If China were to shut off the tap tomorrow, the world would

not be able to cover even a quarter of its demand for panels with the remaining manufacturers. I insist, let's not even talk about the basic components. And regarding the panels, it's not that there's a second player waiting in the shadows. India, next on the list, reaches 3.3%. Europe and the United States together do not

reach 20%. However, if we move on to talking about energy generation, things change, although not by much, because here too China is a leader by a long shot. In 2025 the world produced 2,778 TWh of solar energy. Well, China was responsible for 1175, 42% of all global solar power. Then, far behind, come the

United States with 14% and the European Union with 13%. We are talking about two immense economic blocs that together do not reach what China produces on its own. And then there's India, which is making a huge leap forward and has already reached 7%, and Japan at 4%. Together, the five of them account for 80% of

all the solar energy on the planet. Ultimately, China controls solar energy at the moment, both in manufacturing and generation. And it is also this country that has injected more capacity into the global market year after year, faster than anyone else . Take a look at this. In the last 2 years alone, China

has contributed more than 50% of all global solar growth. And friends, here's the key because the big explanation for why the industry is slowing down comes precisely from China, from the same place that boosted it for years. But how is it possible that the country that has invested the most in solar energy

is now the source of the problem? To understand it, we need to see what's happening inside China. And what's happening is a kind of perfect storm.

The origin of all the problems has a name and surname: massive overproduction. And you see, for many years, just as it has done with other industries, the Chinese government massively supported the solar industry, showering it with billions, access to cheap land, interest-free loans, direct production subsidies, everything. In fact, since 2011, China has invested more than $50 billion

in solar manufacturing capacity . 10 times more than Europe, 10 times more. And of course, with such a large investment behind them, the factories continued to grow. Initially, companies tried to gain ground through innovation, but in the solar industry, improvements are quickly copied. What is an advantage today, everyone will have tomorrow. So the only way to survive was to

launch a price war. And the only way to win that war was to expand production to the maximum in order to minimize the cost per panel. The result of this race, an unprecedented reduction in prices, as I mentioned before, more than 90% since 2010, but also a scale of production that no longer makes any

sense. Today China has the capacity to manufacture 1100 GW of solar panels each year, practically double all that the world installed in 2025, which , remember, was the best year in history. And of course, that is completely unsustainable for the Chinese electricity grid. Because? As many loyal viewers of the channel already know, this is for

the simple reason that solar energy works very differently from coal or gas. You can turn on a coal-fired power plant when you want and turn it off when you want. You have total control. That doesn't happen with solar power. This energy source produces electricity when the sun is shining. At midday, on a

clear day, the panels flood the electricity grid. At night they contribute nothing, and the Chinese electrical grids that were built for decades with coal in mind are not designed to manage those peaks and valleys. They did have a certain absorption capacity, yes, and it worked for years , but that capacity has now been

exhausted. The grid is at its limit, so much so that it has begun to discard its surplus solar energy. In January and February of this year alone, 9% of all solar power generation in China was wasted. The previous year it was 6%. It is an upward trend with no signs of improvement in the short term.

[music] [applause] The result is that new solar installations in China could fall between 24 and 43% this year compared to 2025. And since the Asian giant represents more than half of the global solar installation market, when China slows down, the world slows down; there is no way to compensate for it, and the

consequences for the industry are already being felt and are devastating. China's solar industry, a world leader, is in crisis. The Gulf War will not save it. Most Chinese solar companies have already lost money since 2024. More than 40 have gone bankrupt, been acquired, or been delisted . A third of the workforce at the

five largest companies in the sector has been laid off. Shares of industry giants like Longy, Tongway, Jinko Solar and Trina Solar are trading at less than half of their peaks from just a few years ago. And the government, which for years was the great patron of the sector, has backtracked. Since June of last year, new

solar projects have had to sell their electricity at market price, without guaranteed rates. In April, the tax refund for exports also disappeared, and some local governments have begun demanding subsidies from companies that can no longer pay them, preferring that they go bankrupt rather than continue supporting them. So, given this scenario, the logical question

is, if China is saturated and prices are at rock bottom, shouldn't Chinese manufacturers redirect that production towards markets where there is still absorption capacity? Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia. Well, friends, they tried and they hit a wall. Let's start with the United States, the world's second-largest solar power, because what's happening there is quite revealing

of where the political winds are blowing . The Trump administration does not see renewables as the future, and that is not our interpretation; it is something that the president himself has repeated time and again in his speeches and that has been implemented as official policy. For example, he has completely reorganized the Department of Energy. It has

eliminated the clean energy demonstrations office that under Biden distributed billions in technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture. It has abolished the Office for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, which for decades funded research in solar and wind power, and in its place has created an Office for Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy and renamed its

loan fund the Office for Energy Dominance Financing . The slogan couldn't be clearer: drill, baby drill. And that has direct consequences for solar energy, because if the government doesn't provide support, the sector loses some of the tailwind it was experiencing. Of course, that's not even close to the most important thing. The crucial point is that the United States has

erected a tariff wall against Chinese solar panels, making it virtually impossible to compete in that market. And they haven't been the only ones, because the second largest buyer of panels, the European Union, is doing something very similar. Brussels cites security concerns in its latest crackdown on sensitive imports made in China. Look at what

Brussels has just done. The European Commission has blocked public funding for Chinese solar investors. For those who don't know, an inverter is the component that connects solar panels to the electrical grid. Without it, the panels are useless, and China controls more than half of the global market for these devices. And why is

Europe blocking them? Because it says that a foreign actor could use those investors to manipulate the continent's power grids, access operational data, or, in the worst-case scenario, remotely cause nationwide blackouts. The Commission has described them as one of the most serious threats to critical European infrastructure. So from November 1st, no project with public funds will be able to install

Chinese investors. And this is not an isolated case. Europe is excluding China from public funding for electric vehicles, shielding its telecommunications against Huawei, and building brick by brick a regulatory wall against Chinese technology in strategic sectors. And be careful, because an important distinction needs to be made here . The fact that Europe doesn't want to

buy from China doesn't mean that Europe will stop installing solar power. They are two different things. The problem is that Europe is also slowing down its own facilities, and the reasons are not political as in the United States, but structural and in some cases just as worrying. Note that in 2025 solar installations in Europe

fell for the first time in a decade, from 65.6 to 65.1 GW. A small drop in absolute numbers, but symbolically enormous. 10 consecutive years of broken growth. And why did that fall happen? Well, for a very similar reason to China, the networks simply can't keep up. More than 1000 GW of renewable energy are waiting in Europe to be

connected to the grid. In Spain alone, in 2025, developers requested access for 40 GW and only 4 and 5 were approved. 25 were rejected outright due to lack of capacity. And just like China, Europe is also starting to generate solar electricity. In the coming months, it is expected that around 40 TW will be discarded because the system cannot

absorb it, 25% more than in 2025. And so the three major drivers of solar energy have become stuck at the same time. Each for their own reasons, but with the same result. Its capacity to continue absorbing more solar energy has reached its limit, and that has very significant consequences.

So, what happens now? Solar energy has reached its peak, and that's it. Well, not exactly, this slowdown isn't the end of the story. It's a forced pause while the world works through the structural problem behind all of this. Solar power generates energy when it wants to, not when it's needed. And until that problem is

solved, growth will remain limited. And the solution has two fronts. On the one hand, technologies that do not have that variability problem. On the other hand, batteries that allow the storage of what the solar power generates in excess. Because look, the problem with solar energy is not the same as with nuclear energy, which generates energy

constantly 24 hours a day, nor is it the same as with geothermal energy, which harnesses the Earth's heat and is not dependent on the weather. Hydroelectric power does not have it, as it can be regulated at will in many cases, nor does tidal energy. that follows highly predictable cycles. These sources do not

have the problem of the midday peak or the nighttime hole. So many analysts suggest that the next investment cycle in renewables will go precisely in that direction. In fact, one of the most talked about is the one we mentioned very recently on this channel, and that is none other than offshore wind power. But anyway, beyond

renewables, another crucial player will be batteries. In 2025, 108 GW of new storage capacity was installed worldwide, 40% more than the previous year. This is currently the fastest growing energy technology on the planet, and its price, just like that of solar panels a decade ago, continues to fall. More battery capacity means being able to store excess solar energy at

midday and use it at night; in other words, it means being able to absorb much more solar energy than the grids can manage today. Friends, the energy transition was never a straight path. It has its bumps, its pauses, its contradictions. Solar has done something extraordinary in the last 15 years, but now it

faces its own limits. And the big question is, will the world be able to resolve these bottlenecks in time? Do you think the slowdown in solar power is temporary or is it the beginning of something deeper? And what energy do you think will lead the next cycle? Leave your opinion in the comments, and if you

liked the video, you know what to do: hit the like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and we'll see you in the next installment here on If You Had Known. See you soon .

[music]