看懂市場週期

Let’s start with a short story. A investor named Tom who entered the stock market at the peak of the bull market in 2021 and suffered heavy losses in the down market in 2022. He couldn’t bear to watch his hard-earned money disappear in the stock market. In the end he couldn't help but sell most of the stocks.

but shortly after he sold the stocks, the market gradually rebounded, and the index is about to hit a record high. If he didn't sell the stocks at that time, but continued to hold them even increased his investment when the market was in a panic, could the outcome be completely different? This story of Tom's,

I think it actually happened to many people. so the question is, since the market is almost hitting a new record high, should Tom re-enter the market to increase his investment? or take advantage of the market rebound and quickly sell all the remaining stocks? What he is worried about is, what if there is another 20% plunge

What if, as people say, a recession is coming? Should Tom buy? or sell? Or buy? Be patient, after watching this episode, I believe you will have the answer in your heart. First of all, we must be clear that no one can be sure what will happen in the financial market, but we can know

what direction will have a higher probability. This is called fuzzy correctness. As an example, suppose Tom goes to a lottery game, there are three bags, ABC, each containing ten colored balls. A contains four green balls, three yellow balls and three red balls. Bag B contains two green balls, four yellow balls and four red balls.

There is one green ball in the bag C two yellow balls and seven red balls The rules of the game are such that Tom can only pick one bag and randomly draws a colored ball. The participation fee for each draw is $1000, If Tom gets a green ball, he wins $3000. If he draws a yellow ball, he gets $1000.