Método Árbol de decisiones

Hello everyone, today we're going to talk about decision-making, specifically the decision tree. The decision tree is an analytical method that allows us, through a schematic graphical representation, to compare various positions or alternatives and make the best decision, especially when we have to establish risks, costs, benefits, probabilities, and other solutions. The name comes from the

model's arc-like appearance. It can be used to guide you from a simple, informal exchange of ideas to generating mathematical algorithms to determine the best course of action. There are three types of nodes within this scheme: the decision node, represented by a square; the probability node, represented by a circle, which shows the probabilities of

certain outcomes; and the non- terminal node, which shows the final result of a decision point we've drawn. Additionally, we find alternative branches that allow us to consider other possible outcomes or actions we can take, and the rejected alternative, which is an alternative that is not selected in our decision-making process. To provide context and

explain... To better explain this method, let's gradually develop an exercise: a situation presented to us indicates that a manager needs to decide whether to buy one or two machines for their manufacturing processes. It's clear that if this manager buys only one machine, they could later buy a second. However, it must be taken

into account that the manufacturing process for the second machine could take up to six months, which could result in losses if sales are low. Furthermore, if they buy one machine and the demand turns out to be low ( estimated probability of 30 %), the net present value they would receive would be 120,000 pesos. In the