PSYC 3610 – Lecture 6

hi everyone welcome to lecture six okay so today we're going to talk about these things um and essentially with the first two I'm going to kind of explain it a little bit more in depth than the book does because I think um in my experience students struggle with you know basian statistics and regression to

the means so I'm going to try to explain it a little differently um and then I'm also going to talk about intuition quite differently as well so these are the topics we are going to discuss today first let's talk about causal information and statistical information okay okay so this is base theorem um you

do not need to know this equation but you do need to kind of understand what Bas theorem is and basian statistics especially because really um a lot of Statistics are kind of going that way so just ahead heads up if you are inv involved in stats or research um it's good to have an understanding of Base so

essentially it's a little different than your regular statistics because it's based on prior probabilities and it's about updating probabilities and updating things that are not certain okay um so what these things mean here the P's are of course probability but it's about the probability of things occurring given something else so the probability of a occurring given B is

equal to the probability of B occurring given a times the probability of a all over the probability of B which I'm not that wasn't the clarifying part so don't worry I'm going to go through the example that's given um in the book that Conan fski came up with and that's used a lot to kind of

jump start people's understanding of Bas theorem okay but what you really need to understand is this is about like statistical inference it is about um prior probabilities so base rates these are all things that are really important to what we're talking about right now okay so this is the scenario and you I'm going to walk you through it and I