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Billionaire Investor: Why I'm Betting on Anthropic Over OpenAI — Transcript · YTtoTranscript

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Billionaire Investor: Why I'm Betting on Anthropic Over OpenAI

Joe Lonsdale · 2,608 words · 13 min read · EN-ORIG

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Below is the complete, readable transcript of Billionaire Investor: Why I'm Betting on Anthropic Over OpenAI by Joe Lonsdale on YouTube. Read the full text, copy any part you need, or generate a transcript for any video with our free tool.

Do you uh feel the criticism open AI is getting right now, ChatGPT is getting right now, is fair? >> Which which part of that? You know, revenue, you know, the conversation about, you know, they may start adding ads in there even though he said that in the last resort. >> I thought that was a funny attack that

Anthropic did on making fun of them for that. Listen, >> I saw that. Anthropic is very creative on some of the stuff they're >> they Listen, I I was I'm old friends with Elon and I'm long his his company. So now after he merged it, I own a bunch of SpaceX stock already before, too.

Um I'm also a small investor in in in Anthropic, which is just an extraordinary technology. And And there's people who are attacking them for for for various things, but I just Anthropic has pulled away ahead in the coding area. And I And I And it's just 25 now. It's 380 380 post, but that's I think

that's even cheap for where they're going cuz they're just growing so fast. And like all of our companies are are are using this. And it's it's it's really fun. Like a lot of my smartest friends who are already extremely wealthy and can do anything they want are staying up coding right now cuz it's

so fun what you can do with these tools. It's just a crazy time right now. >> Are you more long with Anthropic than OpenAI? >> Uh Yeah, I I'm I'm most long SpaceX and next AI. I'm second most long Anthropic. OpenAI, I do think it could possibly have some struggles here, but I don't

know. There's obviously it's amazing what they accomplished and and they really kind of brought law law to the world. So they get deserve a lot of credit for that. I think Elon and along with Sam both deserve credit for building that team really on. >> No question. >> Yeah, it was a nonprofit organization.

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He turned it to profit and then that's where the feud took place between the two of them. >> It's uh it's unfortunate. I I think these I think these like these feuds are not productive for our for our society, but I understand it. I worry Elon's coming from and and I hope I hope they

make it, you know, I hope they make it work for everyone. >> I get his argument. I totally get it Elon's argument. Who Who else are you long with? Who What else is it that, you know, I had a call with uh uh my banker. I said, "Listen, send me the top 10 nuclear companies out there

that are finding ways to tap into the nuclear energy." And then I said, "Okay, we looked at some of them, made a decision." We had a call with their And then I said, "Let's look into these three companies." Which we did. And it's done fairly well. But for you, you're in this world. What else are you seeing

there? >> No, our friends at our friends at Founders Fund have a company with a really talented guy building nuclear fuel as well. And they're making sure making sure they have that in America. It's really important to do. And we're looking into that space. It's you know, it's interesting cuz Elon says all you

need is solar energy, which is which is true at the extreme. But I think in I think we did kind of screw up the regulation on the nuclear space. And that would be I love the fact that Department of War is trying to do more of that now, too. So I think that's a good thing to be

doing. You know, the the areas that I'm most bullish on So in America right now, we have $5 of wages in our services economy. That's like every type of service. And in about 40% of that, and in over $2 trillion area, we've already seen you could double or triple the productivity. At least double, if not triple the

productivity. So this is This is This is in companies that we're exposed to. And it's like the back end of a law firm helping it It's like the back end of logistics payments. It's like health Healthcare billing Healthcare billing sounds small and boring. It's $280 billion a year spent on healthcare billing, right? $280 billion. $280

billion. 120 of that's paid to companies, 160 of that's internal health systems. It's a massive part of the economy. We We already are tripling the efficiency of that. So So what that means is a lot of this stuff is very disinflationary. It's creating a ton of value. And these things are just scaling. Like my best healthcare billing

company uh with a bunch of ex-Palantir guys, it's going to double from like, you know, it'll double to over 100 million revenue this year. But that's still tiny compared to where it's going, right? And And And And as that grows, it's making the whole economy more efficient. So this is This is why

venture capital is this engine that's like taking these possibilities and fixing stuff to make it cheap for for all of us. So it's a really positive thing. >> Why 11.8 million in a Nigerian drone company? >> Okay, no, you know, there's Listen, this the guy running it, first of all, physics Olympia- Olympian, his

co-founder is building another business. These are super talented uh they're super talented young men there. Uh As you probably saw, there's a lot of people being slaughtered in Africa, especially a lot of Christians in Nigeria being killed for the wrong reasons. The security all over Africa is a huge deal. The one of the main reasons

you can't build infrastructure and invest in Africa right now is there's is there's a problem with security everywhere there. And you know, I happen to know a lot about the defense space. I've started multiple companies here. We feel like these guys were really talented and they could they could scale a lot of production over doing real

control cars, sentry towers, drones. And we thought that some of our US technology as well could partner with them and help them. And help them secure Africa. And even if even if we got rid of the Iranian guys, even even if we like make the Middle East somehow have peace, which I hope we do.

>> Which by the way, they're good at making drones. They sell them to >> Russia. Shaheed drones are very good. We have to get really good we're really good at shooting them down now. We're working on it. But but but but basically even if that's all peaceful, Africa's probably going to be a mess for quite a while. I think

helping the good guys there is a good thing to do. >> Why why is it so difficult for drone companies to excel in America? The regulation here is just intense. >> Well, so to build the engines behind these things you need certain rare earth elements and you need certain refining which is very messy. And we just don't

have the the capacity in the US for that. So in in Ukraine unfortunately right now, a lot of the supply chain's coming through China for both sides. Which is unfortunate. >> A lot of the supply chain is coming from both sides? >> Through China. There's a lot of the rare earth refining and elements and engines

and things they're building out. They're using so even like, you know, Eric Schmidt famously is building I think hundreds of thousands of drones to help the Ukrainians. I think it's a very cool thing he's doing there and he built it in Mexico, but I think a lot of even that potentially would be coming some

things are from China. So there's just there's just a lot of so we're trying to ramp up and it is the regulate it's partially regulation. It's actually interesting if you ask like Peter Thiel and my friends there is like the regulatory stuff kill these industries. If you talk to Elon who the other night

was talking about this, he's like, "No, we just need more founders who are willing to build these things in America." And I think he's probably right that as we try to build these things here, you could probably convince them to change regulations to make it possible cuz we do want it to be

possible now. So so I think we're trying to do it now. We're trying to fix it. >> Yeah, I and you you think Greenland is one of the reasons that it plays such a big role in this? >> You know, I think Greenland is a place where if there's ever going to be an

attack on America from the other side of the planet, it has to Russia or China or whatever, a lot of things have to fly over, Greenland. So, I think for the Golden Dome, it's important. I think there's also a lot of resources there. I think there's like a certain spirit of expansion that's very healthy. I think I

think you want to be growing and not shrinking. I think you want to be I think I think I think I think humanity is like in some ways it's very simple. It's like very complex, but it's very simple. And the question is are you shrinking and getting weaker and on the decline or are you growing and

stronger? And and America in its current state where it's expanding manufacturing, it's like confident, it's it's expanding the economy, taking Greenland and and building things for Greenland. Like if we if Greenland was more part of us, we could build infrastructure there. We could have ports that would then enable investment that couldn't happen otherwise. It'd be

really good for Greenland. So, I think it actually would be really good for the world for us to do more in Greenland. I know where it stands. >> Yeah, what what what do you have with tariffs? What what Supreme Court ruling against it 6-3, you know? >> If you looked at the Kavanaugh ruling,

he kind of goes into depth on how you could have done it legally. So, it's kind of like a playbook for how you could still do it if you want, which >> He's given them a playbook on how to >> It was very interesting reading. It was a very funny 6-3 ruling cuz I And by the

way, I'm not a legal scholar, but from best I can tell, it was like three different rulings. It was like three here, three here, three here. And but the six agreed like the three left and the three moderate right or whatever you want to call them agreed that it that it's not legal, but then though I think

at least the moderate right part of the ruling is like, "Well, here's how it could be legal." So, they probably are ways he could still go back and do it is my impression. >> Yeah. But right now the lawsuits, you know, I I I I >> being in the rooms and he's like, "Look,

we don't have to pay the tariffs. We don't have to agree to do this. Look what your Supreme Court said to you." So, it's almost like they're undermining him to say you don't have the kind of authority you thought you had. You can't do So, how do how does that How do you

think >> You know, it's unfortunate, but this is our system of government is we have three separate political branches and it's really annoying when the branches sometimes check you and we I think it's a good that we have checks on power. It doesn't mean I agree with with the Trump shouldn't be able to vote.

>> of the Curtis Yarvin camp? We had him on and I don't know if you know Curtis Yarvin. >> I know who he is. He doesn't he doesn't like it when guys like me try to fix things. He's very cynical. So whenever we're like, yeah, I have my policy group where I like fixing

things or making things work better, he's like, "Oh, you guys are all naive. Everything's broken." That's his view of everything. That's my view. >> He is negative, but he the way he was uh arguing it on, you know, he's for he's for a monarchy rather than having a democracy and he thinks it's more effective. It

could get things more done, you know, he >> I just just just wait until the monarch decides your wife's attractive, man. I don't know if I I don't know if I want to live under that system. Like checks on power are very wise. >> We're going to go back to the the train

days. He's going to he's going to say, "I want the train and now I want your wife. Give her to me, right?" For uh listen, all this money you're making, you know, you're one of these guys that's made billions as well yourself. What is something you you buy? Like are you a comic cards you know, do you

collect cars? >> funny. >> Comic books? Are you unique cars? What what do you >> of Thrones. Earlier on in Game of Thrones, I set up uh the thing in my yard in California back then and we had the Game of Thrones throne and and we and we like have like big theater

outside. It's fun. Um you know, what do I collect? I mean, I have a couple planes, but they're for business, really. Um I have you know, I have a ski house where I host people. We have a vineyard where we host people. Most of my money on the excess money actually goes to the university. It goes

to my policy work. It costs about So it costs about a quarter million dollars to like get a mission-driven piece of legislation passed that helps a lot of people. So for example, vocational schools I care a lot about and I think it's really sloppy right now because if you want to if you want to like spend

more money on vocational schools, that's fine, but if the guy running the vocational school is not very good, it's not going to be good results. So we like in Texas for example, there's 27 vocational schools in Texas. How is it so that you fund the schools in proportion to the success of the

kids? So you see so the students coming out, you see their salaries and that determines the funding. >> Mhm. And and what that did is it doubled the salaries coming out. You took hundreds of thousands of people who would have had tough lives and may have much, much better lives. And so getting

that law passed in another state takes a few hundred thousand dollars. For me that's like really that's like that's a really cool form of philanthropy where I can take something, make our country more functional. So I So I have teams in 23 states. So I spend a lot of money trying to just like fix stuff that's

broken cuz that's for me that's a really fun way to do it.

>> Mhm.